The long-term power system adequacy analysis of the Baltic countries, which has been carried out for the first time by the electricity transmission system operators of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, has shown that the existing double-circuit Lithuanian-Polish power interconnection could be sufficient for the synchronisation of Baltic power systems, after the system is prepared and tested to operate in isolated mode. Moreover, according to the analysis, new reliable and flexibly operating power plants should be built in the Baltic States in eight years to ensure the smooth operation of power systems and the security of supply.
The Lithuanian Minister of Energy, Žygimantas Vaičiūnas, says that many inefficient and uncompetitive power plants in the Baltic countries will be closed in the next period and we must agree and decide at the regional level on new reliable, flexible and efficient power generation sources. “We are faced with two alternatives – either to build these sources on a market basis or through state subsidies. The current situation on the market is not encouraging the development of new generation sources, while making a decision on subsidisation is always complicated, therefore, we must prepare for serious discussions”, he underlined.
The available data shows that new power generation sources to be built in the Baltic countries by 2032 will have a total capacity of just 272 MW, compared with a total capacity of 2 315 MW of power plants scheduled for closure by this time.
CEO of Litgrid AB, a CEEP member, Daivis Virbickas, declares that “beyond 2025, the demand of the Baltic power system reserve will increase from 700 MW to 2 000 MW. In cold winter snaps we may face an electricity shortage of 200 MW, which could be reversed by an easily accessible and reliable power source”.
The power system adequacy analysis for 2032 was carried out by the Baltic electricity transmission system operators Litgrid, AST and Elering. The adequacy of the Baltic power system was analysed according to five scenarios of the operation of the Baltic power system: continuing operation as part of the IPS/UPS system, operation in an isolated mode, operation in synchronisation with the power system of the Nordic countries, operation in synchronisation with the network of continental Europe through the existing LitPol Link interconnection, and operation in synchronisation with the network of continental Europe through two LitPol link interconnections.